Aligned Nations · The wars

Russia and Ukraine

⚔ The aggressor

Russia

Russia annexed Crimea and backed the Donbas war in 2014, then launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022. The UN General Assembly demanded its withdrawal (141 votes) and the ICJ ordered it to suspend military operations.

Backed by

  • North Korea → RussiaThousands of troops sent to fight Ukraine's incursion in Kursk (acknowledged by both in April 2025) and millions of artillery shells.
  • Iran → RussiaShahed attack drones, now built in Russia as the Geran.
  • China → RussiaDual-use parts — chips, machine tools, drone components — that Western governments say sustain Russia's arms industry; China denies arming Russia.

⚠ The provoker

The United States and NATO

Washington drove NATO's expansion to Russia's border and pressed the 2008 promise that Ukraine would join over German and French objections, backed the 2014 change of government in Kyiv, armed Ukraine from 2014 and refused in January 2022 even to discuss Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO — though Kennan, Burns and others had warned that this was Russia's brightest red line. It has since funded the war and taken a claim on Ukraine's minerals.

Their case: Russia says it acted to protect the people of the Donbas from Kyiv and to stop NATO's expansion to its border — those records, and the United States' part, are set out below.

Eastern Europe · since February 2022 · updated 2026-10-12

Deaths: 525,000–600,000 soldiers and civilians, mostly Russian troops (CSIS, July 2026); the UN has verified about 15,000 civilians

In its fifth year, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a stalemate on the ground while missile and drone strikes on cities grow deadlier; US-brokered talks have stalled.

🇺🇦 Ukraine28%🇷🇺 Russiaaggressor0%🇺🇸 United Statesprovoker8%

Summary

Russia launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022 and later declared four Ukrainian regions annexed — acts the UN General Assembly condemned by large majorities. The ICC has an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over the deportation of Ukrainian children. The UN has verified at least 16,431 civilians killed, including 803 children, and says the true figure is higher; about 3.9 million Ukrainians are displaced inside the country and 5.9 million remain refugees abroad.

2026 has been the deadliest year for civilians in a long while: 15,280 killed or injured in the first eight months, with Russian guided bombs, missiles and drones systematically hitting homes, schools, hospitals and railways. Ukraine strikes back inside Russia with drones, mostly at military and energy targets.

Where it stands: Three rounds of talks (Abu Dhabi and Geneva, February 2026) brought no breakthrough. On 10 October 2026 Putin told Trump that early talks were unlikely; Moscow demands Ukraine leave the rest of Donbas, Kyiv wants the lines frozen. A Russian strike on buses in Kramatorsk killed at least 30 on 8 October.

The Donbas, 2014–2022: were its people repressed?

Russia's other stated cause is the protection of the people of Donetsk and Luhansk — mostly Russian-speaking — from Kyiv, which Putin called 'genocide'. UN monitors, the OSCE, Amnesty, Human Rights Watch and the Council of Europe documented real abuses by Ukraine's forces and real losses for Donbas civilians, and equally serious abuses by the Russian-backed armed groups. None of them found genocide.

  1. Apr 2014After armed groups seize towns in the east, Kyiv launches an 'Anti-Terrorist Operation' in Donetsk and Luhansk; the war in populated areas begins.
  2. 2 May 2014Clashes in Odesa end in the Trade Unions House fire; 48 die, most of them anti-Maidan protesters. A Council of Europe panel (2015) found the investigations lacked independence and pointed to possible police complicity.
  3. Jul 2014MH17 is shot down over rebel-held Donbas, killing 298. A Dutch court (2022) found the Buk launcher came from Russia's 53rd brigade.
  4. Sep 2014Amnesty reports abductions, ill-treatment, extortion and possible executions by the pro-Kyiv Aidar volunteer battalion — some amounting to war crimes.
  5. Oct 2014Human Rights Watch finds cluster munitions used in more than a dozen places, with evidence pointing to Ukrainian government forces in attacks on Donetsk city.
  6. Nov 2014Kyiv suspends pensions and social payments in areas it does not control, after cutting off banking in August; about a million people are affected, and in 2019 over 450,000 pensioners there were still unpaid.
  7. 2014–2021UN monitors count 14,200–14,400 killed in the Donbas war, at least 3,404 of them civilians (298 on MH17). Civilian deaths fell from thousands in 2014–15 to 25 in 2021.
  8. Dec 2017The Venice Commission finds the 2017 education law offers 'no solution' for Russian-language schooling and urges a longer transition.
  9. Dec 2019The Venice Commission finds the 2019 state language law 'fails to strike a balance' between promoting Ukrainian and protecting minority languages.
  10. 2021Kyiv takes pro-Russian TV channels off air by sanctions, and a law on indigenous peoples recognises Crimean Tatars, Karaites and Krymchaks but not Russians.
  11. Jul 2021UN report: about 4,000 conflict detainees tortured or ill-treated since 2014 — some 2,500 of them held by the armed groups of the 'republics', including at Izolyatsia in Donetsk.
  12. 18–20 Feb 2022OSCE monitors log a surge of more than 3,000 ceasefire violations on both sides of the line in three days.
  13. 24 Feb 2022Putin names protecting the Donbas from 'genocide' as an aim of the invasion.
  14. Mar 2022The ICJ orders Russia to suspend its military operations immediately (13 votes to 2); in February 2024 it confirms it will judge whether any genocide occurred.

The case that the Donbas was repressed

  • Kyiv waged war on its own populated towns for eight years; Human Rights Watch traced cluster munitions on Donetsk city to government forces.
  • Pro-Kyiv volunteer battalions such as Aidar committed abuses Amnesty called war crimes, with little control from the state.
  • Kyiv cut pensions, social payments and banking to about a million people in the east — a collective punishment of civilians.
  • Laws on education and the state language narrowed Russian in schools and public life (Venice Commission, 2017 and 2019); Russian-language channels were taken off air; Odesa's 48 dead never saw an independent investigation.

The case that it does not justify the invasion

  • No UN, OSCE or Council of Europe monitor found genocide; civilian deaths had fallen to 25 in all of 2021, on both sides of the line.
  • The Russian-backed 'republics' tortured and detained more people than Kyiv did (UN, 2021), and Russian troops and weapons fought in the Donbas from 2014 — MH17 was shot down by a Russian launcher.
  • The Venice Commission accepted that promoting Ukrainian was legitimate after its long suppression, and Ukraine extended the school transition to 2023.
  • Russia's 2022 siege of Mariupol — a Russian-speaking Donbas city — alone left at least 8,000 dead by Human Rights Watch's estimate, more than twice the civilians killed in the eight years before.

Further reading

The NATO question: was Ukraine's path to NATO an aggression?

Russia's stated reason for the war is NATO's eastward expansion and the promise that Ukraine would join it. The record below sets out how the alliance moved east after the Cold War, the warnings Western diplomats gave, and the case on each side. Under the UN Charter, a state's choice of alliance is not an armed attack — but the Qur'anic test of a just cause also asks who drove the other to fight, and that is what this record bears on.

  1. Feb 1990US Secretary of State James Baker tells Gorbachev NATO will not move 'one inch eastward' if a united Germany stays in NATO. Declassified records show similar assurances from Bush, Kohl, Genscher, Mitterrand, Thatcher and Major — none of them written into a treaty.
  2. Dec 1994Budapest Memorandum: Ukraine gives up the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal; Russia, the US and UK pledge to respect its borders.
  3. Feb 1997George Kennan, architect of US Cold War containment, calls NATO expansion 'the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era'.
  4. 1999–2004Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic join NATO (1999); seven more, including the three Baltic states on Russia's border, follow in 2004.
  5. Feb 2008US ambassador William Burns cables Washington ('Nyet Means Nyet') that Ukrainian entry into NATO is 'the brightest of all redlines' for the Russian elite, not just Putin.
  6. Apr 2008NATO's Bucharest summit declares that Ukraine and Georgia 'will become members', though it withholds a Membership Action Plan. Russia fights Georgia that August.
  7. 2014Pro-Western Maidan protests oust President Yanukovych; Russia annexes Crimea and backs the Donbas war. The Minsk agreements follow — Merkel later said they gave Ukraine 'time' to grow stronger.
  8. Feb 2019Ukraine writes the goal of EU and NATO membership into its constitution.
  9. Jun 2021NATO's Brussels summit reaffirms the Bucharest pledge that Ukraine will join.
  10. Dec 2021Russia publishes draft treaties demanding no further NATO expansion, no Ukrainian membership and limits on deployments.
  11. Jan 2022The US and NATO reply in writing: they will not give up the 'open door', but offer talks on missiles, exercises and arms control.
  12. 24 Feb 2022Putin launches the invasion, citing NATO's military build-up in Ukraine and claims of 'demilitarisation and denazification'.
  13. Mar–Apr 2022Istanbul talks draft a deal: permanent Ukrainian neutrality — no NATO — for security guarantees. It collapses after Bucha; Ukraine's negotiator later said Boris Johnson urged Kyiv not to sign, while Kyiv blames Russia's terms.
  14. Nov 2025A US 28-point peace plan asks Ukraine to write non-NATO status into its constitution; later drafts trade this for Article 5-style guarantees.
  15. Oct 2026US-led talks resumed in September; Moscow still demands the rest of Donbas, and NATO status remains on the table.

The case that NATO provoked the war

  • Western leaders gave Moscow repeated assurances in 1990 that NATO would not expand east, then expanded it to Russia's border (National Security Archive, 2017).
  • Kennan (1997), Burns (2008) and the political scientist John Mearsheimer (2014) all warned that bringing Ukraine towards NATO would provoke Russia to war.
  • NATO promised Ukraine membership in 2008 over Russia's objections and reaffirmed it in 2021, while refusing even to discuss Russia's December 2021 treaty proposals.
  • The Istanbul draft shows Russia would accept a neutral Ukraine — and US peace plans since 2025 have themselves proposed that Ukraine stay out of NATO.

The case that Russia is the aggressor

  • No binding pledge against expansion was ever signed; the 1990 assurances concerned German unification (Mary Sarotte, 'Not One Inch').
  • Joining an alliance is not an attack. Russia itself guaranteed Ukraine's borders in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and signed the Helsinki Final Act's right of states to choose their alliances.
  • Membership was not imminent: Bucharest withheld a Membership Action Plan and Ukraine had no path to accession in 2022.
  • Russia struck first and took land — Crimea in 2014, four regions in 2022 — and Putin's speeches deny that Ukraine is a nation at all, pointing to conquest rather than defence.

Further reading

The United States' role: provoker with imperial aims?

The United States did not invade Ukraine, but it shaped the road to the war more than any other outside power — from pressing NATO's promise to Ukraine, to its part in the 2014 change of government, to arming and funding Ukraine as a way to weaken Russia. This is why we name it the war's provoker. The record below sets out what it did and the case on each side.

  1. Apr 2008At Bucharest, the Bush administration presses for Membership Action Plans for Ukraine and Georgia; Germany and France resist, and the summit settles on 'will become members'. Bush later called Georgia's membership his 'biggest disagreement' with Merkel.
  2. Dec 2013Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland says the US has 'invested over $5 billion' in Ukraine's 'democratic aspirations' since 1991, as the Maidan protests fill Kyiv.
  3. Feb 2014A leaked call between Nuland and the US ambassador shows them choosing who should lead Ukraine's next government ('Yats is the guy'). Weeks later Arseniy Yatsenyuk becomes prime minister.
  4. 2014–2021US forces train Ukraine's army at Yavoriv; the CIA builds a partnership with Ukrainian intelligence, financing a bunker and twelve secret bases along the Russian border (New York Times, 2024).
  5. 2017–2019Washington approves lethal aid — Javelin anti-tank missiles in 2018 and again in 2019.
  6. Jan 2022The US rejects Russia's demand for a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO.
  7. Apr 2022After visiting Kyiv, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says the US wants 'to see Russia weakened' — a war aim beyond Ukraine's defence.
  8. 2022–2025Congress appropriates about $175 billion for Ukraine; the Kiel Institute counts about $123 billion actually allocated by early 2025.
  9. Apr 2025The US–Ukraine minerals deal creates a joint fund taking half the revenue from new licences for Ukraine's minerals, oil and gas; the first US draft had sought all of it.
  10. Nov 2025The US 28-point peace plan would bar Ukraine from NATO in its constitution — the very terms Washington refused in January 2022.

The case that the US provoked the war for imperial ends

  • It pushed NATO's promise to Ukraine over its European allies' objections, and refused to discuss it on the eve of war — then offered the same neutrality in 2025 after hundreds of thousands had died.
  • Its diplomats were recorded picking Ukraine's next leaders during the Maidan protests, and its intelligence service spent eight years building bases on Russia's border.
  • Its stated aim was to see Russia 'weakened' — a rival great power worn down with Ukrainian lives and American weapons, much of the money spent in American arms factories.
  • It has taken a stake in Ukraine's minerals and energy in return for its aid — the taking of a nation's common resources that the policy reforms forbid.

The case against

  • The '$5 billion' was 22 years of aid to civil society and institutions; fact-checkers found no programme that paid for the Maidan, which began when Yanukovych dropped the EU agreement.
  • Ukrainians chose the West themselves: support for NATO was only 13–16% before 2014 and rose to 40–54% after Russia took Crimea and the Donbas war began.
  • Ukraine asked for the weapons and aid; the US held back lethal arms until 2018 and froze aid in 2019.
  • The minerals deal was softened in talks: no debt, Ukraine keeps ownership, and future US aid counts as its contribution.

Further reading

The parties

  • Ukraine

    28%

    Defends its land against invasion — the clearest just cause — and has largely confined its strikes to military and energy targets.

    • Fighting an invasion the UN General Assembly demanded Russia end (ES-11/1, 141 votes).
    • Drone strikes inside Russia, including on Moscow, mainly at military and energy sites.
    • Has proposed a leaders' meeting and a freeze of the front lines.

    🇺🇦 Ukraine in the nations ranking28%

  • Russia

    0%

    A war of conquest: invasion, annexation, deported children and cities bombed.

    • Invaded on 24 February 2022 and declared four regions annexed in September 2022 (declared invalid by the UNGA).
    • ICC arrest warrant for Putin over the unlawful deportation of children (March 2023).
    • UN: Russian forces systematically hit homes, schools, hospitals, railways and shops; June 2026 was the deadliest month for civilians since April 2022.

    🇷🇺 Russia in the nations ranking0%

Articles

How each nation is scored — the ten principles of our policy reforms
  1. Justice (adl). No one's land, life, rights or wealth taken unjustly; justice upheld for everyone, even enemies, and what was wrongly taken given back. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  2. Protection of life (hifz al-nafs). Life is sacred: non-combatants never targeted, war only against real aggression, and no help given to another's aggression. Political Policy Reform; the objectives of the sharia (maqasid)
  3. Prohibition of usury and speculation (riba, gharar). Public and private finance built on shared risk and real assets, not interest-bearing debt or speculative bets. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  4. Circulation of wealth and zakat (tadawul al-mal). Wealth must not circulate only among the rich; zakat, endowments and fair wages meet every person's basic needs. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  5. Trust over common resources (amana). Water, energy, minerals and public assets belong to the whole community — not privatised, monopolised or signed away for private or foreign gain. Economic and Financial Policy Reform
  6. Accountability and truthfulness (muhasaba, sidq). Rulers, security forces and firms answer to law and to the public; no coups, state capture, bribery or concealment. Economic, Political and National Policy Reform
  7. Legitimate authority by consultation (shura). Rule rests on the community's consent, given through consultation and a free pledge — not inheritance, force or foreign backing. Political and National Policy Reform
  8. Kept covenants and peacemaking (wafa bil-ahd, sulh). Treaties, contracts and rulings honoured; an offer of peace met with peace; disputes ended by reconciliation. Economic, Financial and Political Policy Reform
  9. Independence and self-reliance (izza). No foreign power or creditor in control of the nation's revenues or decisions; its own strength, industry and knowledge built. Financial and Political Policy Reform
  10. Human dignity, privacy and freedom of worship (karama). Every person's dignity protected — citizen or migrant; no spying on private lives; faiths and places of worship free and safe. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform

These are the principles the Policy Reform pages draw from the expert opinions. Each nation is marked 0–5 on each from its record as a state — its economy, government and treatment of its people, and its conduct in its wars — drawn from UN bodies, the ICJ and ICC, human-rights monitors and the reporting under each war. The ten marks make the percentage; each war a nation started, provoked or joined against another people then takes 15 points off it, and an aggressor always ranks below every nation that started no war. The score judges a state's conduct, not its people or their faith.