Aligned Nations · The wars

Somalia and al-Shabaab

⚔ The aggressor

Al-Shabaab

Al-Shabaab has waged an armed insurgency against the Somali state since 2006, bombing markets, hotels and bases.

Backed by

  • Al-Qaeda → Al-ShabaabAl-Shabaab is al-Qaeda's sworn affiliate in East Africa; UN monitors have also reported contacts with Yemen's Houthis over weapons.

Their case: Al-Shabaab calls the government an apostate client of foreign powers.

Horn of Africa · since 2006 · updated 2026-10-12

Deaths: Over 40,000 in battle since 2006 (UCDP), with about 3,800 in 2025

A resurgent al-Shabaab has retaken much of the ground it lost in 2022–23 while Mogadishu quarrels with its regions over elections and the African Union mission runs short of money.

🇸🇴 Somalia38%🇺🇸 United States8%

Summary

Al-Shabaab's bombings, suicide attacks and assassinations remain the main cause of civilian deaths in Somalia (HRW World Report 2026). Crisis Group says political divisions in Mogadishu let the group retake much of the territory the government won in 2022–23. The army and Ugandan troops launched 'Operation Rolling Thunder' in Lower Shabelle in March 2026, and US Africa Command has stepped up air strikes — 124 in 2025 and at least 74 by mid-July 2026.

Parliament extended its own term from four to five years in March 2026, with direct elections promised for 2027; Puntland, Jubaland and the opposition reject the plan. The African Union mission AUSSOM needs at least $15 million a month and has a fraction of it, and the US will end UN logistical support after 2026.

Where it stands: AUSSOM's mandate runs to 31 December 2026. AFRICOM strikes continued in late September 2026 near Kismayo. The electoral dispute between Mogadishu and the federal states is unresolved.

The parties

  • Federal Government of Somalia and AUSSOM

    38%

    Defends the state and its people from a group that bombs markets, though its political feuds and forces' abuses weaken it.

    • Fighting al-Shabaab with AU troops since 2007; Operation Rolling Thunder from March 2026.
    • Clashes between federal and Jubaland forces led to reported unlawful killings and displacement (HRW).
    • Extended parliament's term without broad consensus (March 2026).

    🇸🇴 Somalia in the nations ranking38%

  • United States (AFRICOM)

    8%

    Fights at the government's invitation, but its stepped-up air war carries civilian costs it rarely admits.

    • 124 strikes in 2025 and at least 74 by mid-July 2026 (New America).
    • A May 2026 strike near Qandala reportedly killed four civilians; AFRICOM denies conducting it.

    🇺🇸 United States in the nations ranking8%

  • Al-Shabaab

    Bombs civilians and assassinates in Islam's name — the opposite of its principles of war.

    • IEDs, suicide bombings, shelling and assassinations cause the highest civilian casualties in Somalia (HRW World Report 2026).
    • Ambushed a federal convoy near Baidoa in May 2026.

    An armed group, not a nation — not scored in the ranking.

Articles

How each nation is scored — the ten principles of our policy reforms
  1. Justice (adl). No one's land, life, rights or wealth taken unjustly; justice upheld for everyone, even enemies, and what was wrongly taken given back. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  2. Protection of life (hifz al-nafs). Life is sacred: non-combatants never targeted, war only against real aggression, and no help given to another's aggression. Political Policy Reform; the objectives of the sharia (maqasid)
  3. Prohibition of usury and speculation (riba, gharar). Public and private finance built on shared risk and real assets, not interest-bearing debt or speculative bets. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  4. Circulation of wealth and zakat (tadawul al-mal). Wealth must not circulate only among the rich; zakat, endowments and fair wages meet every person's basic needs. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  5. Trust over common resources (amana). Water, energy, minerals and public assets belong to the whole community — not privatised, monopolised or signed away for private or foreign gain. Economic and Financial Policy Reform
  6. Accountability and truthfulness (muhasaba, sidq). Rulers, security forces and firms answer to law and to the public; no coups, state capture, bribery or concealment. Economic, Political and National Policy Reform
  7. Legitimate authority by consultation (shura). Rule rests on the community's consent, given through consultation and a free pledge — not inheritance, force or foreign backing. Political and National Policy Reform
  8. Kept covenants and peacemaking (wafa bil-ahd, sulh). Treaties, contracts and rulings honoured; an offer of peace met with peace; disputes ended by reconciliation. Economic, Financial and Political Policy Reform
  9. Independence and self-reliance (izza). No foreign power or creditor in control of the nation's revenues or decisions; its own strength, industry and knowledge built. Financial and Political Policy Reform
  10. Human dignity, privacy and freedom of worship (karama). Every person's dignity protected — citizen or migrant; no spying on private lives; faiths and places of worship free and safe. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform

These are the principles the Policy Reform pages draw from the expert opinions. Each nation is marked 0–5 on each from its record as a state — its economy, government and treatment of its people, and its conduct in its wars — drawn from UN bodies, the ICJ and ICC, human-rights monitors and the reporting under each war. The ten marks make the percentage; each war a nation started, provoked or joined against another people then takes 15 points off it, and an aggressor always ranks below every nation that started no war. The score judges a state's conduct, not its people or their faith.