Aligned Nations · The wars

The Sahel: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger

⚔ The aggressor

JNIM and Islamic State Sahel

Armed jihadist groups rose against the states of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from 2012, now besieging Bamako's fuel and attacking towns and villages.

Backed by

  • Al-Qaeda → JNIMJNIM is al-Qaeda's sworn affiliate in the Sahel.
  • The Islamic State → Islamic State SahelA province of the Islamic State; no state backer has been documented for either group.

Their case: The insurgents claim to fight for sharia and against state and Russian abuses of Fulani communities — abuses HRW has documented.

West Africa · since 2012 · updated 2026-10-12

Deaths: Over 50,000 since 2012 — about 10,000 a year since 2022 (ACLED, Africa Center for Strategic Studies)

Al-Qaeda's JNIM has besieged Mali's capital with a fuel blockade since April 2026, while the juntas and Russia's Africa Corps massacre Fulani villagers in the name of fighting it.

🇧🇫 Burkina Faso28%🇲🇱 Mali26%🇳🇪 Niger26%🇷🇺 Russia0%

Summary

On 25 April 2026 JNIM, with the Azawad Liberation Front, struck Kati, Mopti, Sévaré, Gao and Bamako, killing Mali's defence minister, and on 28 April declared a full blockade of the capital — reimposing a fuel siege that had brought the economy near a standstill in late 2025. Mali imports about 95% of its fuel by road. In Burkina Faso, about half the country is outside government control; in Niger, JNIM and Islamic State Sahel have both attacked Niamey airport this year.

The military juntas and Russia's Africa Corps answer with collective punishment. HRW documented Africa Corps fighters killing nine civilians, including four children, in Bombori in July 2026 — beheading a detainee and burning Fulani homes — and an air strike that killed eight civilians in June. Malian soldiers acted as interpreters; neither Russia nor Mali replied.

Where it stands: Bamako is supplied mainly by escorted fuel convoys; drones from Africa Corps and Türkiye have not lifted the blockade. Mali's army reportedly retook Kidal in early October 2026. Attacks by JNIM and IS Sahel are surging in Burkina Faso and Niger.

The parties

  • Sahel juntas (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger)

    Defending their states against insurgents is a just cause, but their troops and allies kill Fulani civilians as suspected sympathisers.

    • Malian forces implicated with Wagner/Africa Corps in unlawful killings of civilians, many of them Fulani (HRW World Report 2026).
    • Burkina's army, VDP militias and Africa Corps accused of atrocities; half the country outside state control.

    🇲🇱 Mali in the nations ranking26%🇧🇫 Burkina Faso in the nations ranking28%🇳🇪 Niger in the nations ranking26%

  • Russia's Africa Corps

    0%

    Foreign fighters killing villagers with impunity — no cause of their own and no restraint.

    • Bombori massacre, 10 July 2026: nine civilians killed, about 80 men and boys beaten, a detainee beheaded, eight Fulani homes burned (HRW).
    • Air strike of 15 June 2026 killed eight civilians, including three children — 'unlawfully indiscriminate' (HRW).

    🇷🇺 Russia in the nations ranking0%

  • JNIM (al-Qaeda in the Sahel)

    Claims Islam while besieging a Muslim capital's fuel and food, bombing near displacement camps and massacring villages.

    • Fuel blockade of Bamako since 28 April 2026, declared as retaliation against civilians who helped the army.
    • Car bombs near a displacement camp in Gao killed six civilians (HRW, June 2026); a May 2026 attack on two Mopti villages reportedly killed at least 50.
    • 755 people killed by JNIM attacks in Burkina Faso in 2026 so far.

    An armed group, not a nation — not scored in the ranking.

  • Islamic State Sahel

    Kills Muslims and others indiscriminately; the furthest from every principle.

    • Attacked Niamey airport in January 2026; coordinated offensives with JNIM in Burkina Faso in February 2026.

    An armed group, not a nation — not scored in the ranking.

Articles

How each nation is scored — the ten principles of our policy reforms
  1. Justice (adl). No one's land, life, rights or wealth taken unjustly; justice upheld for everyone, even enemies, and what was wrongly taken given back. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  2. Protection of life (hifz al-nafs). Life is sacred: non-combatants never targeted, war only against real aggression, and no help given to another's aggression. Political Policy Reform; the objectives of the sharia (maqasid)
  3. Prohibition of usury and speculation (riba, gharar). Public and private finance built on shared risk and real assets, not interest-bearing debt or speculative bets. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  4. Circulation of wealth and zakat (tadawul al-mal). Wealth must not circulate only among the rich; zakat, endowments and fair wages meet every person's basic needs. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform
  5. Trust over common resources (amana). Water, energy, minerals and public assets belong to the whole community — not privatised, monopolised or signed away for private or foreign gain. Economic and Financial Policy Reform
  6. Accountability and truthfulness (muhasaba, sidq). Rulers, security forces and firms answer to law and to the public; no coups, state capture, bribery or concealment. Economic, Political and National Policy Reform
  7. Legitimate authority by consultation (shura). Rule rests on the community's consent, given through consultation and a free pledge — not inheritance, force or foreign backing. Political and National Policy Reform
  8. Kept covenants and peacemaking (wafa bil-ahd, sulh). Treaties, contracts and rulings honoured; an offer of peace met with peace; disputes ended by reconciliation. Economic, Financial and Political Policy Reform
  9. Independence and self-reliance (izza). No foreign power or creditor in control of the nation's revenues or decisions; its own strength, industry and knowledge built. Financial and Political Policy Reform
  10. Human dignity, privacy and freedom of worship (karama). Every person's dignity protected — citizen or migrant; no spying on private lives; faiths and places of worship free and safe. Economic, Financial, Political and National Policy Reform

These are the principles the Policy Reform pages draw from the expert opinions. Each nation is marked 0–5 on each from its record as a state — its economy, government and treatment of its people, and its conduct in its wars — drawn from UN bodies, the ICJ and ICC, human-rights monitors and the reporting under each war. The ten marks make the percentage; each war a nation started, provoked or joined against another people then takes 15 points off it, and an aggressor always ranks below every nation that started no war. The score judges a state's conduct, not its people or their faith.