Explain the middle east balance of power

Summary

Iran's weakened proxy network and exposed limits on US guarantees have pushed Gulf states into new but thin alliances, while Saudi-UAE rivalry keeps the region divided.

What it argues

1. Balance of power fragmentedPolitics

   The US-Israel war on Iran since February 2026 weakened Iran's regional proxy network. The war exposed the limits of US security guarantees in the region. No single power is able to enforce stability across the Middle East. The region's order is in flux rather than settled.

2. New Gulf alliancesPolitics

   Houthi advances on Yemen's Red Sea coast, and Washington's refusal to strike them, are driving new Saudi-Egypt and Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan security arrangements. The Mecca and Saudi-Pakistan defense pacts give Gulf states new but structurally thin security guarantees. Gulf states are hedging through new pacts rather than relying on Washington.

3. Shifting Levant and Iraq footholdsPolitics

   Iran's weakened Axis of Resistance has expanded Türkiye's room for manoeuvre through Iraq. Hezbollah's decline is opening tentative Israel-Lebanon normalization talks, altering Iran's foothold in the Levant. Iran's retreat is reshaping influence in Iraq and Lebanon in Turkey's and Israel's favour.

4. Gulf bloc still dividedPolitics

   Saudi-UAE divergence over Yemen, Sudan and Israel policy continues to block a unified Gulf power bloc. Converting the Mecca and Saudi-Pakistan pacts into a published text, joint command or explicit US intervention thresholds, plus GCC institutional reform, is proposed to make the balance of power testable. Rivalry within the GCC, not just outside pressure, is keeping Gulf alignment incomplete.

Open questions

• Whether the Mecca and Saudi-Pakistan pacts will be converted into a published, enforceable structure.
• Whether GCC institutional reform will occur to resolve Saudi-UAE divergence.
• Whether Israel-Lebanon normalization talks will advance given Hezbollah's decline.