What are the most consequential technologies that exist?

Summary

Advanced semiconductors and AI top the list of strategically consequential technologies, with no binding international rules governing them, while middle powers pursue funding, blocs or capital deals to build matching capability.

What it argues

1. Chip exports as leveragePolitics

   Washington's H200 export decision traded revenue against security concerns. Export policy for chips functions as a diplomatic tool between great powers. Chip export decisions set terms unilaterally rather than through agreed rules.

2. Dependence overrides neutralityPolitics

   Malaysia's semiconductor sector ties it to one power despite formal neutrality. Reliance on a single technology base can align a state politically even without a formal commitment. Technological dependence can quietly determine a state's political alignment.

3. Pooling scale through blocsPolitics

   The EU's defence White Paper groups AI, quantum, cyber, electronic warfare and space as shared gaps to close by 2030. Joining a bloc such as the EU or NATO gives a middle power scale it cannot reach alone, at the cost of national control over specifications. Bloc membership offers middle powers scale but reduces independent control.

4. Minerals beneath the chipsEconomics

   Critical minerals and rare-earth processing rank as the material base beneath semiconductors and AI. Everything else in the technology stack is built on this supply. Control over mineral processing shapes who ultimately controls chips and AI.

5. Funding decides capabilityEconomics

   Sustained, ring-fenced defence R&D funding is the first requirement for building AI, autonomy, cyber, space and quantum capability. South Africa's experience shows that promises without protected budgets lead to decline. Capability building competes directly with fiscal and social spending priorities.

6. Capital-for-access partnershipsEconomics

   States with capital, such as the UAE with the US and Germany, trade investment for access to joint R&D and compute. Spreading partnerships across several technology powers avoids relying on just one. Capital buys access, but the supplying power can still set or change the terms.

7. No binding rule on AI and chipsLaw & rulings

   No binding international regime covers advanced semiconductors or AI. The states that control the supply chain set the terms unilaterally. The absence of law leaves export control as a one-sided diplomatic tool.

8. Proposed verification regimeLaw & rulings

   A binding multilateral regime for AI and chip exports, with a verification body, is proposed to replace one-sided decisions. No such regime currently exists. Without a verification regime, control over AI and chips stays with a few exporting states.

Open questions

• Whether a binding multilateral regime with verification for AI and chip exports will be created.
• Whether resource-producing states will process minerals domestically and diversify partners across the supply chain.
• Whether middle powers pursuing capital-for-access deals can avoid dependence on the partner setting the terms.